Target Analytics Dashboard

What is the Target Price?

The target price is AMPL's inflation-adjusted reference point, calculated using the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It represents what $1.00 USD from 2019 (AMPL's inception) is worth today in purchasing power terms.

How is it Calculated?

Key Points:

• Started at $1.00 in July 2019 (AMPL inception)
• Adjusts monthly based on PCE data releases
• Maintains purchasing power parity with 2019 USD
• Drives rebase decisions: market price > target = expand, market price < target = contract

Important: AMPL is NOT pegged to inflation

PCE is simply used as a measuring stick to ensure constant unit value through time. The protocol maintains purchasing power parity with 2019 USD, independent of fiat currency movements.

What is PCE?

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) measures the prices that people living in the United States pay for goods and services. It's produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), part of the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Why PCE (not CPI)?

• PCE is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure
• Accounts for substitution effects (consumers switching to cheaper alternatives)
• Broader coverage of expenditures than CPI
• More comprehensive economic picture

Update Process:

1. BEA releases monthly PCE data (usually last week of month)
2. AMPL oracles fetch this data independently
3. New target calculated using updated PCE
4. On-chain oracle updates target value
5. Rebases use new target for supply adjustments

What Happened?

In September 2023, the BEA released a comprehensive revision to historical PCE data, adjusting values going back to 2019. This was a routine comprehensive revision that the BEA performs every 5 years to incorporate better data sources and improved methodologies.

Impact on AMPL:

Effects on the Dashboard:

• Historical target values changed when recalculated with revised data
• Current target calculation uses corrected base CPI (103.422)
• This dashboard shows both original and BEA-revised calculations
• The BEA toggle lets you compare how targets differ between datasets

What Didn't Change:

• Update timing: Target updates happened when they happened, regardless of which dataset you view
• Rebase mechanics: The protocol still works the same way
• Oracle system: No changes to how oracles fetch and report PCE data

The Two-Provider System:

AMPL uses two independent oracle providers for redundancy and accuracy. Each provider:

• Fetches PCE data from BEA independently
• Calculates target price using their own methodology
• Submits their value to the on-chain oracle contract
• Updates happen asynchronously (not simultaneously)
• Can only update once every 28+ days minimum (per provider)

The protocol takes the median of the two provider values as the official target.

Example Timeline:

• Day 1: Provider A reports new data → Target updates (median of A's new value + B's old value)
• Day 15: Provider B reports new data → Target updates again (median of A's old value + B's new value)
• Day 29: Provider A reports again → Target updates (median of A's new value + B's old value)

This explains the data patterns:

• Most months have 1-2 target updates as providers alternate
• Short gaps (even 1-7 days) occur when providers update consecutively
• Each provider respects the 28-day minimum, but the system can update more frequently
• Looking at the Gap Distribution chart, you'll see 40+ updates with 0-7 day gaps—this is normal!

What are Gaps?

A "gap" is the time between consecutive target updates. While target updates generally happen monthly (following PCE releases), the exact timing varies significantly. The LSP (Longest Stable Period) statistics flip card analyzes these patterns in detail.

Short Gaps (0-7 days):

These are completely normal and occur frequently due to the two-provider system:

• Provider A updates, then Provider B updates shortly after - this is the main cause of short gaps
• Both providers processing the same BEA data release on different schedules
• Each provider still respects their individual 28-day minimum
• The Gap Distribution chart shows 40+ updates with 0-7 day gaps—this proves it's normal behavior.

Normal Variation (14-35 days):

Most gaps fall in this range due to:

• BEA releases PCE data on different calendar days each month
• Providers alternating their update cycles (e.g., Provider A → 28 days → Provider A again)
• Oracle processing time varies slightly
• Blockchain confirmation delays add minor variability
• Weekend/holiday timing affects update schedules

Long Gaps (40+ days):

Rare, but can occur due to:

• Delayed BEA data releases
• Technical issues with oracle infrastructure
• Protocol upgrades requiring coordination

Statistical Analysis:

The LSP Statistics flip card provides comprehensive statistical analysis of gap patterns:

• Mean: Average gap duration
• Median: Middle value (often more meaningful than mean)
• Mode: Most common gap length
• Percentiles: Understanding the distribution of gaps